A recent poll shows that a significant percentage of both Democratic- and Republican- leaning voters would prefer that their party nominate an alternative to President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election.
In a CNN/SSRS poll published over the weekend, only 45 percent of Democratic-leaning voters said they want President Joe Biden to run again in 2024, while 51 percent said they want to see someone else win the nomination.
Of those who said that they don’t want Biden to run again, 31 percent said they don’t want him to get reelected, while 35 percent said they don’t believe he can defeat a Republican in the general election contest.
Former President Donald Trump didn’t fare much better – just 50 percent of the poll’s Republican-leaning respondents said they want Trump to be the GOP nominee in 2024, while a near-equal number (49 percent) said they wanted someone else. Thirty-nine percent of those who said they don’t want him to be the party’s nominee said they don’t want Trump to get elected, while 22 percent said they don’t believe he would be able to defeat a Democratic opponent.
When asked to name a candidate that they would like to see their party nominate for the 2024 presidential race, Democratic-leaning voters had a harder time than Republican-leaning ones. Of the Democrats who said they wanted Biden to sit out of the 2024 presidential race, only 25 percent could name a specific person that they would like to see run instead. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) fared the best, but still only garnered 5 percent of support; second to him was former first lady Michelle Obama, who had 4 percent support for a presidential run.
Meanwhile, a significant number of Republican-leaning voters seem to be in agreement over potential candidates that could run if Trump doesn’t. Among the Republicans who said Trump shouldn’t run in 2024, 38 percent listed a specific person that they wanted to run instead. More than 1 in 5 voters (21 percent) who didn’t want Trump to run said that Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis should be the party’s nominee in 2024. Second to him was Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., who had only 1 percent support among Republicans who didn’t want Trump to run.
The poll’s data suggests that both Biden and Trump could easily win the nominations for their respective parties. However, the two might have a more difficult time becoming their parties’ nominees than they did in 2020.
Both Biden and Trump have seen significant drops in their favorability ratings as of late. But voters’ disapproval of Biden’s job performance doesn’t necessarily indicate that they preferred the Trump presidency, said Marquette Law School polling director Charles Franklin.
“No nostalgia for the Trump years is a good way of putting it,” Franklin said.
When the respondents of the poll were asked about a rematch between Biden and Trump, Biden fared 10 points better than Trump, with 43 percent of respondents saying they would vote for the current president while just 33 percent said they would back the former one.
While Trump’s endorsement still holds massive influence in key GOP races, analysts have noted that Trump appears to be losing his firm grip on the Republican Party. Several members of the party have condemned the former president’s actions in recent weeks, including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) and Trump’s former Vice President Mike Pence.
Trump has repeatedly made the erroneous claim that Pence had the power to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. But in a recent speech about the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol building, Pence debunked the former president’s assertions.
“President Trump is wrong,” Pence said earlier this month. “I had no right to overturn the election.”
Republicans who have been condemning Trump’s rhetoric about the Capitol attack may be doing so strategically, as polling shows that most voters view the events of January 6 in a negative light. Indeed, 72 percent of voters in a recent ABC News/Ipsos poll said that the violent breach of the U.S. Capitol building by a mob of Trump loyalists was a threat to democracy. Trump has continually defended his loyalists’ actions and has even suggested that he would pardon them if he won the presidency for a second time; such statements likely embolden his base of support but alienate voters overall.
