“The evidence so far suggests the race might shift only slightly, by a few points…it’s not the kind of Trump collapse that Democrats may hope for,” Politico reports.
A conviction of former President Donald Trump before the 2024 presidential election would not do much to help Joe Biden’s chances of getting reelected, Politico lamented on Saturday.
The corporate media outlet delivered a dose of reality to Joe Biden and the Democrats’ hopes that lawfare tactics will stop Trump from retaking the White House in 2024, noting that polls don’t support their assumption that a conviction will derail his path to the presidency.
“Yes, Biden’s historically unpopular. Yes, views of his job performance are growing increasingly negative. But if a jury of Trump’s peers in Manhattan, or South Florida, or Atlanta or Washington convicts him before Election Day, they say, it would have a dramatic impact on the race,” Politico reported.
“They’re probably wrong.”
“The evidence so far suggests the race might shift only slightly, by a few points. That could be important in another close election, but it’s not the kind of Trump collapse that Democrats may hope for — or Biden may need if his numbers don’t improve,” the outlet added.
Politico cited a recent Wall Street Journal poll showing a Trump conviction would have a negligible effect on voter sentiment, and further highlighted how that generally tracks with Trump’s tendency to defy the political laws of gravity when it comes to “scandals.”
Since only about half of the respondents were asked about a hypothetical Trump conviction, the two results aren’t directly comparable. But they suggest a massive swing against Trump is unlikely. And the margins are small: With just a 1-point lead in a hypothetical Trump conviction scenario, Democrats can’t rely on a small post-conviction swing tipping the race.
And that’s if he’s even convicted before the election. Though Trump’s 2024 calendar is littered with planned trial dates up and down the Eastern Seaboard, there’s no guarantee that those cases won’t be pushed until after Election Day.
The 2024 tea-leaf reading wouldn’t be the first time that Trump’s controversies have led critics to prematurely bury his electoral prospects, whether it was the October 2016 revelation of the “Access Hollywood” tape or predictions that the GOP would move on from the then-president in the wake of his 2020 defeat and the Jan. 6, 2021 riot at the Capitol.
Of course, Trump’s poll numbers did drop — temporarily — following those events. But he recovered in time to defeat Hillary Clinton less than a month after the “Access Hollywood” tape became public and, earlier this year, to become the prohibitive Republican favorite for the nomination.
A criminal conviction might have a similar effect.
Polls show the majority of voters recognize the politically motivated nature of federal and state criminal and civil charges against Trump.
For example, New York Attorney General Letitia James — who campaigned on indicting Trump in 2022 — admitted over the weekend that a Manhattan court agreed with her allegation that Trump was guilty of fraud before the trial even began, a flagrant denial of his due process rights.
Donald Trump engaged in years of incredible financial fraud to enrich himself and his family.
During 11 weeks of trial, we showed the true extent of that fraud and all the ways he unjustly benefitted from it.
No matter how powerful you think you are, no one is above the law. pic.twitter.com/DCeKhdZGFC
— NY AG James (@NewYorkStateAG) December 15, 2023
Reports also emerged that the clerk of Judge Arthur Engoron, who is overseeing Trump’s civil fraud case in New York, campaigned with James at a Democrat event in 2022.
Even Engoron’s wife was caught spewing anti-Trump rhetoric on social media.
Trump faces over 700 years in prison on 91 federal and state charges across four states, including fraud, conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, and unauthorized retention of classified documents.
