As the Municipality of the District of Lunenburg (MODL) explores extending public transit services throughout MODL areas, it’s essential to conduct a thorough cost analysis. This will help determine the feasibility of implementing a transit option. You can expect a major push for this initiative over the next four years, from 2024 to 2028. However, which direction they will take remains to be seen. It is their plan Local Climate Change Action Plan 2030 on page 31, link below. This analysis provides an estimate of potential costs for a transit system, should it move forward. No decision has been made yet, though the initiative is outlined in the climate change plan, and specifics are still under consideration.
Currently, there is a bus service called ‘Lunenburg County Wheels,’ which is a registered non-profit organization aimed at fostering the independence and mobility of residents through access to a pre-booked, door-to-door transportation option. This service is already running in the area and costs much less than the proposed plan mentioned in the Local Climate Change Action Plan 2030 on the MODL website. So why change it? If they were to expand on this, it would be the best and most cost-effective option available.
One can almost assume that the initiative will include purchasing electric buses, and they will not be able to service the area with only one bus. So, let’s do some math.
Estimated Costs of Electric Buses
Initial Purchase Cost:
The average cost of an electric bus ranges from $700,000 to $900,000. For a fleet of 5 buses, the total would be approximately $3.5 million to $4.5 million.
Charging Infrastructure:
Establishing charging stations can add significant costs. Installation of charging equipment may cost around $50,000 to $100,000 per station, plus ongoing electricity costs. If 3 charging stations are needed, this could amount to an additional $150,000 to $300,000.
Maintenance and Operating Costs:
Electric buses generally have lower operating costs than diesel due to fewer moving parts and lower fuel costs. However, estimates suggest that operational costs, including maintenance and utilities, could be around $1.00 to $1.50 per mile.
Cost Comparison of Bus Types
Diesel Buses
Initial Cost: $300,000 – $500,000 per bus
Fuel Cost: $0.60 – $0.80 per mile
Maintenance Cost: $0.15 – $0.25 per mile
Lifespan: 12 to 15 years
Electric Buses
Initial Cost: $700,000 – $900,000 per bus
Fuel Cost: $0.10 – $0.25 per mile (cost of electricity needed to operate the bus)
Maintenance Cost: $0.05 – $0.15 per mile
Battery Replacement: Approximately $300,000 every 8-12 years
Lifespan: 12 to 15 years
Summary
Diesel buses are the cheapest to buy but have higher fuel and maintenance costs. Electric buses require a significant upfront investment but have lower operational costs, though they incur battery replacement costs, which could easily end up costing more than the diesel bus. So, are you really going to save money with this option?
Problems and Challenges
Infrastructure Development:
Building the necessary infrastructure for electric buses, such as charging stations and maintenance facilities, requires careful planning and investment.
Public Acceptance and Usage:
Gaining community support for public transit can be challenging. To be honest, we are mostly a rural community, and people don’t really move here for the transit service.
Operational Feasibility:
Determining optimal routes and schedules that meet community needs while ensuring cost-effectiveness can pose significant operational challenges.
Technological Reliability:
While electric buses are generally reliable, technological issues may arise, and ensuring a maintenance plan is crucial to minimize downtime.
Conclusion
The projected costs of implementing a public transit system with electric buses in MODL could potentially exceeding $4 million just for the buses and infrastructure. Additionally, this initiative will require full-time drivers, ongoing operational costs, and maintenance, all of which will accumulate over the years and it will go far over any budget they put forth. The question of how many residents will actually utilize this service remains uncertain. Many citizens in our community cherish their independence, choosing when to shop and drive, which suggests that a significant portion may opt not to use public transit.
This initiative marks the first step toward transforming our community into a more urban-like environment, something that many residents might resist. Proponents often cite environmental benefits as the rationale behind this change, urging us to alter our habits. Ultimately, we may end up spending millions and raising property taxes to fund a transit system that most residents either do not want or will not use. It is something that we should watch out for and expect to become a hotter topic in the near future.
Reference: https://engage.modl.ca/local-climate-change-action-plan-2030 Page 31 of the PDF
Also, consider reading this post; it encapsulates the concerns: Canada’s public transit faces a funding crisis unless new revenue streams are found: analysis
Would you use a transit service in the MODL area, and do you support paying higher taxes to fund it?
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